Processing Heathrow future - Open letter to 'influential MPs'

Recent announcement (Financial Times, 10/5/13)  that an 'influential committee' of MPs backed the case for a third runway at Heathrow demonstrated how strongly the airport’s past glory dominates the reality of decision makers gathered to decide its destiny. They are still talking about preserving the UK’s status as a ‘leading international hub’ (a title lost years ago), about Heathrow being the ‘jewel in the crown of international aviation’ (while it has long lost its shine).

Dear influential MPs,

Wake up, you are dreaming. Heathrow is not what it used to be a decade ago. Stop trusting distorted statistics. Hidden from your eyes are growing inefficiencies and unknown increase in operating costs related to disruptions - included are things like long schedule buffers, additional aircraft, crew and maintenance costs, unreported tarmac delays, and loss of revenue. You may be wondering how many Heathrow passengers experience unpleasant disruptions every year, but you wouldn't know it, as this has never been reported. Their numbers are counted in millions. If you want to learn what Heathrow is and what needs to be improved just look at what happened in December 2010 when the airport was paralysed for almost a week caught up unprepared for snow. About 800,000 passengers were affected, thousands of them in an unprecedented way. You won’t find this number in statistical reports, but can work it out logically. If you do, you will start to feel what the politics of ‘growing quantity ahead of quality’ really means. This is more real than any speech or statistical report about Heathrow performance you have ever come across. And this is more real than what you were able to see during the London Olympics in summer 2012. Don’t feel ashamed for not knowing – the shame is not-wanting to know. So, go and see it, experience it. Get closer to real life because, even if your plans to build the third runway go ahead, it won’t be ready before the turn of the next decade. How many passengers will suffer from previous neglects in the meantime? How many people living around Heathrow will be exposed to even more environmental and noise pollution during that time? Before embarking on a final decision, try to work out how big their threshold of tolerance is. It is your chance to make things right this time. And never forget that airports cannot exist without passengers.  

Related articles:

Beyond Heathrow Disruptions
Politics and media mix on Heathrow future
The airport lesson
Future of London airports in fantasies

Politics and media mix on Heathrow future

This is the report from the Transport Committee meeting on 10 May 2013

...and this is the media role in shaping the public opinion on the same subject

Links to the articles:

Transport Committee

Financial Times
Evening Standard
The Guardian
The Telegraph
Public Finance
British Airways News

The role of feelings in shaping business success

In business, when we talk about change we associate it with change in form, in things we can measure, and ultimately with monetary value. But change is much more than that. It is also a result of our thinking and emotions – put them together and they turn into a change in feelings and consequently our behaviour. This unnoticeable and unreported ‘stuff’ makes a shift in the way we perceive and do things – ultimately creating the culture of either fear or love that leads to business success or failure.

When fear prevails, things we are asked to do are passively accepted, we are not inclined to make improvements and we do the job just to secure the flow of income. There are people who perform better when driven by fear, but there is always a question whether their efforts are oriented more towards their personal or company’s interests. We often refuse to see that by working for organisations which nourish the culture of fear, we may lose that job anyway because the chances are that this company cannot last long, at least not in its current shape. 

When love prevails, we enjoy what we do, we freely exchange ideas, communicate more, better understand and appreciate work of others, bring new value into the business, and feel as an appreciated contributor. Creation of ‘good vibrations’ proved to be among factors that bring longer lasting business prosperity in good and bad times.

Although this change in feelings cannot be measured by conventional means, change in disruptiveness can signal the transformation, and indicate its direction.

What does disruption ‘healing’ have in common with Western and Chinese medicine?

We are often stuck in resolving the complex business problems by looking at them from narrow perspective, forgetting that they are just a part of universal nature and that we can find answers to our questions in other areas of life through which they also manifest. While writing Beyond Airline Disruptions, I searched widely for inspirations. This included analogies, especially in medicine, where I found a great deal of similarity between disruptions and diseases, and the ways they could be diagnosed and healed. Among my favourite texts on this subject is the following quote about wholeness and health from the book The Turning Point written by Fritjof Capra, where he compares the diagnostic methods of Western with Chinese medicine.

‘In Western medicine the doctor with the highest reputation is a specialist who has detailed knowledge about a specific part of the body. In Chi­nese medicine the ideal doctor is a sage who knows how all the patterns work together; who treats each patient on an individual basis; whose diagnosis does not categorize the patient as having a specific disease but records as fully as possible the individual's total state of mind and body and its relation to the natural and social environment.

To arrive at such a complete picture the Chinese developed not only highly refined diagnostic methods of observing and questioning the patient but also a unique art of pulse taking that allows them to determine the detailed flow of patterns of ch'i along the meridians, and thus the dynamic state of the entire organism. Traditional Chinese practitioners believe that these methods allow them to recognize imbalances and hence potential problems' before they manifest themselves in symptoms that can be detected with Western diagnostic techniques.’

Tourist destruction - ye olde delay!

This postcard was staring at me from Foyles' card stand and made me laugh. They do say 'a picture is worth more than a thousand words'. I thought it should be a nice addition to the series of my blogs about airport disruptions. 

Artwork by Martyn Ford from 'The How to be British Collection'. 

Future of London airports in fantasies

While launching the investment plans and rise in airport charges (BBC News 12 Feb), Heathrow bosses revealed their expectations that passenger numbers will increase ‘from just under 70m now to around 72.6m by 2018-19’ (previous forecasts were more courageous expecting that Heathrow will accommodate 78m passengers in 2013). The indecency of these ‘expectations’ comes from the fact that no growth at Heathrow is possible because it is already over-congested in the air and on the ground with no physical space for expansion (more in Beyond Heathrow Disruptions). It’s been bearing a title of the most disrupted world airport for quite some time, contributing to the increase in environmental toxicity through air and noise pollution. The chances are that passengers will be those to strike a balance by avoiding potential troublesome travel experiences and saving Heathrow from even more troublesome future. 

On the other side of the battle front, aimed at resolving the London airport crises is the Mayor of London with plans to build a new airport on the southeast of the city, often called ‘fantasy airport’. 

If I would have to choose between those two fantasies, I would pick the second one. Firstly, because I like smooth travel and secondly, because I am inclined to believe in stories that are more likely to end happily (even if not ‘ever after’). 

The airport lesson

Here is what Seth Godin, the world's most popular blogger, wrote about an increasingly painful part of air travel seen through the eyes of an air passenger. This is a rare insight applicable to any world airport which has outgrown its capacities and operational capabilities - something that most industry insiders and politicians don't want to say, or see.

Eleven things organizations can learn from airports

.

'I realized that I don’t dislike flying--I dislike airports. There are so many things we can learn from what they do wrong:

1. No one is in charge. The airport doesn't appear to have a CEO, and if it does, you never see her, hear about her or interact with her in any way. When the person at the top doesn't care, it filters down.
2. Problems persist because organizations defend their turf instead of embrace the problem. The TSA blames the facilities people, who blame someone else, and around and around. Only when the user’s problem is the driver of behavior (as opposed to maintaining power or the status quo) things change.
3. The food is aimed squarely at the (disappearing) middle of the market. People who like steamed meat and bags of chips never have a problem finding something to eat at an airport. Apparently, profit-maximizing vendors haven’t realized that we’re all a lot weirder than we used to be.
4. Like colleges, airports see customers as powerless transients. Hey, you’re going to be gone tomorrow, but they’ll still be here.
5. By removing slack, airlines create failure. In order to increase profit, airlines work hard to get the maximum number of flights out of each plane, each day. As a result, there are no spares, no downtime and no resilience. By assuming that their customer base prefers to save money, not anxiety, they create an anxiety-filled system.
6. The TSA is ruled by superstition, not fact. They act without data and put on a quite serious but ultimately useless bit of theater. Ten years later, the theater is now becoming an entrenched status quo, one that gets ever worse.
7. The ad hoc is forbidden. Imagine an airplane employee bringing in an extension cord and a power strip to deal with the daily occurrence of travelers hunched in the corner around a single outlet. Impossible. There is a bias toward permanent and improved, not quick and effective.
8. Everyone is treated the same. Effective organizations treat different people differently. While there’s some window dressing at the edges (I’m thinking of slightly faster first class lines and slightly more convenient motorized cars for seniors), in general, airports insist that the one size they’ve chosen to offer fit all.
9. There are plenty of potential bad surprises, but no good ones. You can have a flight be cancelled, be strip searched or even go to the wrong airport. But all possibility for delight has been removed. It wouldn’t take much to completely transform the experience from a chore to a delight.
10. They are sterile. Everyone who passes through leaves no trace, every morning starts anew. There are no connections between people, either fellow passengers or the staff. No one says, “welcome back,” and that’s honest, because no one feels particularly welcome.
11. No one is having any fun. Most people who work at airports have precisely the same demeanor as people who work at a cemetery. The system has become so industrialized that personal expression is apparently forbidden.

As we see at many organizations that end up like this, the airport mistakes its market domination for a you-have-no-choice monopoly (we do have a choice, we stay home). And in pursuit of reliable, predictable outcomes, these organizations dehumanize everything, pretending it will increase profits, when it actually does exactly the opposite.'

Too harsh, or true?


(Heathrow story: Beyond Heathrow Disruptions)

Denial

Can downgrading risks and banning reports on passenger experience help solve the disruption problems at Heathrow?

During the recent session of UK Transport Committee about the preparedness for the Olympics, Andy Garner, the London 2012 director for airport operator BAA Heathrow said that Heathrow will be able to cope with the vast influx of passengers (even during its busiest time in history). What a bold declaration considering massive number of interwoven problems that brought Heathrow to the top of the list of worst performing world airports. (See Beyond Heathrow Disruptions ). It must have caused of many eyebrows to rise. The Chairperson Louise Ellman used the following words to express her concerns: ‘If something goes wrong at Heathrow, it will go spectacularly wrong and the whole world will know about it!’ Mr Garner didn’t look confused - he remained adamant that things will go well. I am starting to see him as a magician. He appeared in my dream wearing the BAA hat preparing to pour the water into a full glass while assuring the audience that it won’t spill over the edge. I woke up before I saw the magic!

I am just wondering if, in reality, BAA denial that things can go ‘spectacularly wrong’ has anything to do with the Government plan to ban publishing of passenger views about flight disruptions at Heathrow and other UK airports (read the article below). 

Denial to face the obvious only postpones unwanted consequences, which often come at a high price. The only question is how the price will be and who is going to pay for it.

Bid to hear passengers’ border queue views blocked  

Ministers are blocking plans to publish passengers’ views on nightmare border queues and other delays, the Standard reveals today.

The Government has rejected legal changes which would force BAA to release data showing passengers’ experiences of “Heathrow hassle” and chaos at other UK airports.

The changes were proposed as part of changes to licensing conditions, which Labour tried to introduce through the Civil Aviation Bill.

MP Jim Fitzpatrick, shadow London transport minister, tabled an amendment to the Bill in March which would require publication of annual surveys of passenger satisfaction on border control services, baggage handling and delays caused by adverse weather.

But Tory and Liberal Democrat MPs voted down the proposed change during the Bill’s committee stage after aviation minister Theresa Villiers stated that the UK Border Authority fell outside the scope of the Bill.

Ministers also argued that publishing the proposed data would “unbalance the licensing system”, prioritising some passenger concerns over others, and “undermine the flexibility” of the Civil Aviation Authority to address delays.

Labour sought to re-introduce the new clause, without reference to UKBA, month but again it was opposed by the Government.

Shadow transport secretary Maria Eagle said: “The failure to get a grip on the unacceptable delays facing passengers at London’s airports shows that ministers are worryingly complacent about the impact of this chaos on our international reputation and ultimately on investment, jobs and tourism.

“We need greater transparency on the scale of these delays.”

BAA has recently started publishing monthly queuing data on immigration which shows how often the Border Force meets its own targets — but it does not cover passengers’ opinions.

(Evening Standard, 16 May 2012)

'The role of disruptions in reducing the business risk'

My recent speech during the 4th International Conference on Governance, Fraud, Ethics and Corporate Social Responsibility held in Alanya, Turkey, was about The Role of Disruptions in Minimising Business Risk and Enhancing Governance and Social Responsibility - airline industry experience. Here is the outline.

While evaluating business risk companies usually turn to sources of external threats. Often however, self-induced weaknesses outnumber those caused by factors outside the organisation. Remaining unnoticed, many of them become gradually accepted as a norm - some stay hidden behind departmental doors, and others are being lost in overcrowded information systems.  Accumulation of these invisible threats usually manifests by ‘sudden’ ‘unexplainable’ disruptions, later defined as unavoidable or the result of business complexities. They are not only damaging for business but have wider social and economic implications.  Recent examples in banking and airline industry sectors well illustrate the seriousness of problems that could arise by poor evaluation of business risk.

Businesses are becoming more complex and are operating in a more uncertain environment than ever.  The inherited postulate that company must always grow to be successful, without much consideration for infrastructural and resource limitations brought in more disruptiveness and instability, making successful management and business control a daring task.

The dynamics and complexity of airline industry makes a good example for examining the consequences of these practices. For many years, the industry development was mainly driven by traffic growth and short term profit, with less interest in synchronised development with airports, ATC (Air Traffic Control), investment in people and other less visible but not less important components necessary to ensure business longevity. These are the main reasons for big industry losses and deterioration in quality of airline services at busiest world airports.  

All these and other inherited problems cannot be repaired overnight. We need to accept that they are here to stay for years to come and find out how to cope with them more successfully, gradually improving the system efficiency, and minimising the business risks.  One of the less explored but powerful ways of achieving this goal is through process of disruption risk management. It focuses on critical disruptions, and works backwards towards their true, multiple, interconnected origins spread across the organisation. During this process, explicit and tacit information need to be used to evaluate business risk and contribute to more responsible governance. This process doesn’t require big investments, the methods are not complicated, and it doesn’t take long before the first results could become visible. How can this be achieved?

I take this opportunity to thank Kıymet Tunca Çalıyurt   for organising such a great event and for being a fantastic host. 

Is Heathrow really as ‘ill-equipped to cope with London 2012 Olympics' as MPs have warned?

Heathrow airport could be thrown into chaos as it struggles to cope with the mass influx of Olympic visitors. Tourists, many from outside the EU, could be deterred from returning to Britain if they have to wait more than an hour to clear immigration, culture media and sport committee chairman John Whittingdale wrote. ‘The second impact may be that planes cannot unload their passengers into the terminal due to capacity being exceeded’, he cautioned. ‘This would lead to circling in the air, planes being left on runways or planes blocking gates.’ While plans had been made for ‘the Olympic family’, flight schedules had not been changed and there was no contingency for the extra time needed to unload additional baggage, he added. Committee members Therese Coffey and Gerry Sutcliffe had met airport operator BAA but ‘did not leave the briefing confident that Heathrow was ready to cope,’ Mr Whittingdale revealed in the letter to culture secretary Jeremy Hunt. 

Just few days ago BAA announced that Heathrow carried over 70 million passengers in a year ending March 2012, reaching the milestone in an otherwise ‘challenging economic environment’. It doesn’t say much about the depth of decline in the quality of service. Heathrow now operates at 99.2 per cent of its maximum capacity, which means that there is no space for even the slightest disruption without causing the scaling knock-on effects - a guarantee for further increase in the number and length of disruptions. Just over two years ago a small amount of snow brought misery to nearly 1m of would-be passengers stranded worldwide (see Beyond Heathrow Disruptions).  

Could Heathrow, be saved from being thrown into chaos during the Olympics?  Hard to believe, even for hardcore optimists. Good luck!

The fallacy of delay meetings

When airline schedules do not go according to plan, we often see airline managers seeking answers to the wrong questions. They gather reams of unreliable data on delays to justify poor operational performance and discuss the issues during the regular delay meetings where much of precious management time is wasted on analysis of insignificant problems that could be resolved locally at operational level. They often include unrelated problems, solutions, goals, interests, and concerns. So, a meeting called to discuss delays and other operational disruptions may become discussion about staff absenteeism, a dysfunctional computer unit, scheduling oversights, software errors, passenger compensation, or similar problems that could be fixed locally. It is hard to understand why management attention is not focused more on problems that matter most, like true origins of most costly delays and other disruptions that spread wide across the airline. It looks like as the reluctance to view the problems through more powerful lenses gives the decision makers a false feeling of protection provided by the lack of information and performance measurement. Airlines deserve and can do better than this. 

My upcoming lecture

I will be giving a lecture on 7th December at the University of Westminster, London as a part of the
Introduction to Air Transport Business and Management seminar.

Here is a brief summary of my talk:

The ability to quantify cost of change or disruption cost, and understand their root causes can bring profound changes in planning and control of airline business. Not many airlines have this ability due to the numerous constraints. Among them is the traditional costing system, useful for accounting and general management purposes but insufficient to manage the business. There is a need for a new, systematic approach to cost control that crosses departmental and information barriers. How can this be achieved in the absence of integrated information systems?